Just eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have stacked up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
