A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
